If Nigeria’s presidential election were held three times in one year, the fact that Peter Obi has built a level of grassroots identification in Cross River State that goes beyond one election cycle have raised a political argument that would be difficult to ignore.That argument is not simply based on social media noise or political rallies. It has a starting point in the numbers.
In the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, then in the Labour Party defeated Bola Tinubu of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP in Cross River State comfortably.
For a state that had traditionally been viewed through the lens of established political structures, that result was significant. It showed that a candidate without the traditional political machinery of the two major parties could walk into Cross River and attract hundreds of thousands of votes.
And that is why the argument that Cross River could remain an Obi stronghold is not coming from nowhere.
The real question today is not whether political parties can organise rallies, print posters, mobilise buses or fill event grounds. The question is whether those activities translate into genuine support at the polling unit.
Across the state, there are increasingly two different pictures of politics. One is the picture presented at rallies, where large crowds are displayed as evidence of popularity. The other is the picture of ordinary people dealing with the realities of their communities: poor roads, weak electricity supply, struggling schools, inadequate healthcare, unemployment and the rising cost of living.
Those two pictures do not always tell the same story.
There have been claims and counterclaims around political rallies in Cross River, including allegations by critics that some APC mobilisation exercises involve financial inducements or organised crowds. Such claims should not be treated as established facts without evidence. But the broader political question they raise is legitimate: how much of what Nigerians see at political rallies represents genuine voter commitment, and how much represents temporary mobilisation?
That question applies to every political party, not only the APC.
For Obi, however, the political advantage is that his strongest selling point has never depended entirely on the size of a rally.
His supporters point to his record as governor of Anambra State, particularly his emphasis on education, healthcare, infrastructure and financial management. Available records of his administration show investments in schools, technology, healthcare, roads and other sectors, while his administration also reported substantial savings at the end of his tenure. His own account of his tenure says Anambra did not take new borrowing during his eight years in office, while contemporary reporting documented the state's savings and investments at handover.
Those records remain part of the reason many young Nigerians continue to associate Obi with the idea of a more disciplined approach to public resources.
For many young Nigerians, that identity has become bigger than any political party.
In Cross River, this matters because the frustrations being discussed in homes, markets, schools and communities are not abstract political theories.
A recent SBM Intelligence survey on quality of life placed Cross River at the bottom of its assessment across 11 of 15 measured dimensions. The organisation said nearly nine in ten residents surveyed wanted to leave the state, while its survey examined issues including income, safety, affordability, school quality, healthcare and electricity.
That is a serious warning sign.
If people cannot see enough opportunities in the communities where they were born, political loyalty cannot be assumed forever.
A person who has watched a school building deteriorate, struggled to access reliable healthcare, battled poor electricity and watched the cost of food rise does not necessarily care about how many political vehicles appeared at a rally.
That person wants results.
Cross River's own 2026 budget documents show that the state has put substantial resources into education, healthcare, infrastructure and other sectors. The government has also repeatedly said its focus is on improving education, healthcare, rural connectivity and human development.
But the gap between budget promises and what citizens actually experience remains an important political issue.
Premium Times reported, based on Cross River's first-quarter 2026 budget performance report, that the education sector had an approved capital budget of ₦63.5 billion but recorded no capital releases during the first quarter.
That kind of information feeds directly into the political frustration of ordinary Cross Riverians.
The argument is simple, if billions are budgeted but communities still complain about basic infrastructure, citizens will eventually begin asking where the money is going and what exactly is changing in their lives.
That is where the Obi conversation becomes relevant.
His supporters do not necessarily see him simply as another politician asking for votes. Many see him as a symbol of the possibility that Nigeria can be governed differently.
In 2023, Obi's campaign attracted substantial support from young Nigerians and voters who wanted an alternative to the established APC-PDP contest. Contemporary reporting described the former Anambra governor as having generated substantial enthusiasm among young voters and campaigning on his record in Anambra.
Cross River was part of that movement.
And if the conditions that produced that movement remain unresolved, the political sentiment behind it may not simply disappear.
This is why the argument that Obi could again perform strongly in Cross River deserves attention.
It is not necessarily because every Cross Riverian is an Obi supporter.
It is because political memory matters.
The voter who voted for Obi in 2023 remembers that he won Cross River. The young person who joined the Obidient movement remembers the feeling of having a candidate outside the traditional political establishment. And the voter who did not support him may still look at the state's current challenges and ask whether the existing political arrangement has delivered enough.
Even the claim that the 2023 election was rigged does not change the official Cross River result. INEC's announced figures recorded Obi as the winner of the state.
So, regardless of arguments about what happened elsewhere in Nigeria, one fact remains that Cross River gave Obi its presidential majority in 2023.
That fact has become part of the state's political history.
Now, with the emergence of new political alignments and politicians seeking to challenge established structures, the 2027 contest could look very different from 2023. The growing political presence of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) and politicians associated with it will also add another layer to the contest.
But parties and politicians should not mistake political endorsements for automatic votes.
Cross Riverians are not simply looking for another political colour.
They are looking for a direction.
They want to know whether their children will attend schools with decent facilities. They want functioning hospitals. They want electricity. They want roads that connect farmers to markets. They want jobs and businesses that can survive. They want a state where young people do not have to leave home simply to find a future.
And this is where Obi's message continues to resonate with a section of the population.
Peter Obi is a politician whose appeal is built around integrity, competence and the management of public resources. Those are political values that voters will ultimately have to judge against the available record, just as they must judge every other candidate.
But the bigger lesson for Cross River's political class is clear.
A rally can fill a field for an afternoon.
A political structure can move hundreds of people to an event.
A government can produce beautiful budget documents.
But none of these things can permanently replace the experience of the ordinary citizen.
If the grassroots continue to feel neglected, if young people continue to feel excluded, and if communities continue to ask where development is, then the demand for a new political direction will continue.
That is the space in which Peter Obi's message has found a home.
So, can Obi win Cross River again?
No honest commentator can guarantee an election result before voters cast their ballots. The 2027 election will depend on candidates, campaigns, alliances, voter turnout, party structures and the choices Cross Riverians ultimately make.
But the 2023 result established something that political parties cannot simply wish away.
Peter Obi already demonstrated that he can win Cross River.
And if the issues that pushed voters toward an alternative in 2023 remain alive, Cross River may once again become one of the states where the battle for Nigeria's political future is decided not by the loudest rally, but by what voters believe their future should look like.
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